Three Breakouts, Three Busts

Three Breakouts, Three Busts

As you are preparing for your upcoming fantasy drafts, the key word to focus on is “value”.

Successful fantasy owners are the ones who can consistently find the best value in relation to where they selected their players.

In order to get your primed and ready for success in your upcoming drafts, here is a look at three players who are primed to have breakout fantasy campaigns, and three players who are currently being overvalued by fantasy managers.

Three Breakouts

Isaiah Pacheco - Over the last ten years, running backs on top five offenses have finished as an RB1 56% of the time. Given the talent of Kansas City’s offense, it seems almost certain they will finish as a top five offense this season, meaning there could be big production in store for Pacheco, who is currently going as the RB 11.  Furthermore, Jerrick McKinnon is no longer with the Chiefs, which should give Pacheco a bump in receiving volume. In his four games last year without McKinnon, Pacheco averaged five receptions per game. Everything is lining up for Pacheco to outperform his current ADP, and fantasy managers who are able to snag him will likely finish the season very happy with their decision. 

Drake London - The argument for taking London is very simple: He is a former top 10 draft pick who has been productive in his first two professional seasons in spite of bad quarterback play. Heading into year three, he now gets Kirk Cousins, who targeted Justin Jefferson 12 times per game over the last three years. Additionally, Zac Robinson is taking over as Atlanta’s offensive coordinator, and we all know what the Rams were able to do with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp when he served as an assistant for the Rams. The remainder of Atlanta’s pass-catching options are mostly unproven, and there is very little threat that anyone will usurp him as the top option in the passing game for an offense that should be much better this season.

Khalil Shakir - 96% of receivers in a top five offense finish as a WR3 or better, and 88% finish as a WR2 or better. This is important because Shakir is currently being drafted as the WR 52. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are out of Buffalo, and Josh Allen needs a new top target. Dalton Kincaid will certainly have a larger roll, but Shakir is primed to take a step as well. Last year, Shakir was No. 1 in the entire NFL in yards per target and No. 2 in fantasy points per target. When he gets the ball good things happen. He is the only one in the WR room that was on the team last year, so look for him to get plenty of targets, especially early in the campaign. 

Three Busts

Michael Pittman - People are excited about Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson for fantasy, but he is actually a downgrade compared to Gardner Minshew when it strictly comes to throwing the football. Richardson’s fantasy value comes from running the football, and he had a 59% compilation percentage last year and ranked 29th among quarterbacks in catchable pass rate. Pittman’s inclusion on this list is not a knock on his abilities. He is a very good receiver who has been productive in the league, but a lack of solid consistent quarterback play makes it likely that he will not be a good value pick for his current ADP.  

Jaxson Smith-Njigba - If you are hoping that Smith-Njigba is going to have a breakout campaign in his second season, you might be sad to find out that first round receivers that put up a similar stat line to the one he did in their rookie year often don't find fantasy success in their second year. He is not going to pass D.K. Metcalf on the depth chart, and Tyler Lockett is still on the roster, even if he is starting to slow down a bit., In order for a receiver to be a good fantasy as the No. 2 receiver on their own team, they need to be on an elite offense. Smith-Njigba is very unlikely to be playing for an elite offense this season, meaning that he is somebody on which you may want to consider passing.

Aaron Jones - Jones is 30 years old, and he has eight rushing touchdowns over the last three years combined. Keep in mind, those numbers came in the Green Bay offense. Now he is in Minnesota, and he does not have Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love as a quarterback. He may catch 50 passes, but his touchdowns aren't going up. Essentially, the only argument for drafting him is that he is a starting running back, and there are plenty of better options if you are looking to draft a guy because he is a starter. Given his age and situation, there is no reason to believe that he will finish the year outperforming his current ADP.